New Oxford Study Debunks A.I. Optimism

World's top economist's new study pessimistic about A.I. economy

Oxford economics professor Daniel Susskind published paper: labor nets 'zero'

If you've been paying attention to statements about artificial intelligence and automation lately by tech leaders, you know that most are on the side of being optimistic about it. The most recent comments have come from Bill Gates, who recently said that A.I. is on the "verge of making our lives more productive and creative." Article

Study titled: A Model of Technological Unemployment

But a new economic model published in the paper, A Model of Technological Unemployment, says otherwise. Oxford economics professor Daniel Susskind has developed a new economic theory based on advanced mathematics that reaches a not so rosy conclusion about future employment.

"Task encroachment" to squeeze human labor out 

Called 'task encroachment,' the study says that technology will perform more work, squeezing human labor into more specific tasks until there are no more tasks left. And on the way to zero, those tasks will have less and less value.

Capital will flow away from labor

Instead of complimenting labor like A.I. optimists suggest, Susskind's study says that as more and more economic production is carried out by technology, capital will instead flow toward the top and away from labor.

Traditional economic technology models underestimate 

The study also says that previous economic models have consistently underestimated technologies abilities to take over work. The study notes that past models predicted self-driving cars, restaurant order taking, and photographic identification could not be readily automated. The originators of these inaccurate models are also aligned with an optimistic view of A.I. that Susskind's study disagrees with.   

PDF file: A Model of Technological Unemployment